Notable Trends
- National two-bedrooms turn positive. The national median two-bedroom rent rose year-over-year for the first time since June 2025, up 0.1% to $1,906. One-bedrooms held flat on the year at $1,520.
- San Francisco continues to rewrite its record book. One-bedroom rent is up 22.9% year-over-year to $4,180, and two-bedroom rent is up 25.9% to $6,020 — the first time San Francisco two-bedrooms have ever topped $6,000. The city continues to lead the nation in annual rent growth.
- The coastal gap widens. San Francisco’s two-bedroom rent now sits $570 above New York City’s, after San Francisco climbed on the month while New York eased.
- Florida splits into two. Miami is stabilizing as a wave of new supply gets absorbed, active listings are down about 27% year-over-year, while Tampa keeps softening due to an increase in inventory.
At the top of the rankings, the top 10 held still this month as no market changed position. New York City kept the number 1 spot at $4,560 for one-bedrooms, with San Francisco close behind at $4,180 and still climbing. However, San Francisco’s median two-bedroom rent has remained ahead, now $570 more than New York’s, with the gap widening again this month as San Francisco rose and New York eased. Beyond those two coastal anchors, Honolulu is the only other top 10 market growing at a double-digit annual pace, with one-bedroom rent up 10.6%.
National two-bedrooms turn positive annually for the first time in over a year
The Zumper National Rent Index showed the median one-bedroom rent slipped 0.4% month-over-month to $1,520, while two-bedroom rent rose 0.1% to $1,906. On an annual basis, one-bedroom rent is now flat, giving back the modest gain it posted last month, while two-bedroom rent is up 0.1%, its first positive year-over-year reading since June 2025.
Last month, one-bedrooms turned the corner, but this month the two-bedroom rate took over as that signal. Two-bedroom rent has now risen month-over-month for five straight months, and that steady climb finally lifted the annual figure back into positive territory. The one-bedroom’s step back to flat is a reminder that this recovery is uneven and early.
The backdrop is a supply picture that keeps tightening. New deliveries are dropping off after years of elevated construction, and demand is gradually absorbing what’s already been built. U.S. occupancy has been climbing in step, landing at 95.5% as of May, after rising for five consecutive months, according to data from RealPage Market Analytics. With new supply plunging and demand gradually catching up, rents tend to follow eventually.
“The supply wave that reshaped this market is receding, and demand is gradually moving into the space it leaves behind. Two-bedroom rents turning positive year-over-year is the first real fingerprint that supply and demand are beginning to come back into balance. However, we’ve seen false starts before, so cautious optimism is still the prudent read,” says Zumper CEO Shawn Mullahy. “What the national figures hide, though, is that there really isn’t an average housing market right now. Supply remains the defining force, but it’s landing very differently from market to market. Where new supply is being absorbed, rents are beginning to firm. Where inventory is still building, renters continue to hold the leverage.”
The latest CPI data still lags real-time conditions: the shelter index remains one of the stickiest components of inflation even as market rents have only just clawed back to flat. That persistent gap is exactly why Zumper’s index offers an early signal into where the CPI may be headed. For a deeper look, read our full analysis: https://www.zumper.com/blog/zumper-consumer-price-index/
SF rents continue to break records with two-bedrooms surpassing $6k for the first time
San Francisco set new records once again. One-bedroom rent climbed 3% month-over-month to $4,180, up 22.9% year-over-year, while two-bedroom rent jumped 5.6% to $6,020, the first time the city’s two-bedroom rate has ever crossed the $6,000 mark in Zumper’s data, and up 25.9% annually. Both bedroom types are the most expensive in Zumper’s decade-plus of San Francisco records, and the city continues to lead the nation in annual rent growth by a margin no other major market comes close to.
The squeeze is increasingly self-reinforcing. Active listings in San Francisco are down about 30% year-over-year in Zumper’s database. Part of what’s driving that scarcity is that with rents this high, more renters are choosing to stay put rather than test the market, which pulls even more inventory off the board. The result is a shrinking pool of available units and a growing number of renters competing for each one, pressure that continues to push prices higher. AI-sector hiring and a near-empty construction pipeline coincide with the surge, and together they create a demand-meets-scarcity dynamic.
Florida’s tale of two markets: Miami stabilizes while Tampa softens
Two of Florida’s largest rental markets are moving in opposite directions this month, and the difference comes down to supply.
In Miami, rents are leveling off. One-bedroom rent rose 1.1% month-over-month to $2,640, essentially flat year-over-year at -0.4%. The stabilization tracks with inventory as active listings in Zumper’s database are down about 27% year-over-year, a sign that the influx of new units built over the past few years is being steadily absorbed. As that supply clears, the intense downward pressure on Miami rents has largely faded.
Tampa is a different picture. One-bedroom rent fell 1.3% month-over-month to $1,500 and is down 6.3% year-over-year, one of the steeper annual declines among Florida markets. Tampa’s available inventory has grown as active listings on Zumper’s database are up about 9% year-over-year, and that added supply coincides with the softer pricing. Between them, the two markets make the report’s core point: rents follow supply, firming where supply is tightening, and softening where it’s still growing.
Texas leads in annual rent declines
Texas remains the clearest correction story in the country, home to three of the nation’s five biggest one-bedroom decliners this July. Austin leads the country outright, with one-bedroom rent down 16.4% year-over-year, followed by Houston at −14.4% and Dallas at −9.6%. The pattern lines up with the elevated multifamily supply these markets absorbed through the boom years, which continues to give renters the upper hand.
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