Zumper’s rent data provides insights to where the Consumer Price Index (CPI) is heading
Produced monthly by the The Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS), the Consumer Price Index (CPI) is a measure of the average change over time in the prices paid by urban consumers for goods and services, including rent. Since the Cost of Shelter CPI uses existing paid rents, among other data points, as part of its calculation, there is a lagging nature to the CPI’s shelter cost component. Zumper’s data, however, serves as a leading indicator of shelter cost as we measure true market rents.
The latest CPI data shows that the shelter index rose 3.6% annually in September 2025 — matching August’s pace but marking the smallest annual increase since October 2021. In comparison, Zumper’s September National Rent Index recorded a 1% annual decline in median one-bedroom rent. Because CPI figures typically lag real-time market data, the simultaneous cooling in both measures points to easing inflationary pressure, suggesting that there will likely be another rate cut from the Federal Reserve at its October meeting.
As of September 2025, the Federal Reserve cut interest rates for the first time this year, lowering its policy rate by 0.25%.
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